PROJECT UPDATE – May 2018
Trigild welcomed commercial real estate and finance industry leaders from across the country to the seventh annual Trigild Spring Lender Conference, held at the Hotel ZaZa in Dallas.
According to Judy Hoffman, Trigild president and Lender Conference founder, the conference offered presentations by top industry professionals, providing a “great forum to bring the latest trends and developments in CRE servicing, lending and investing, as well as the legal and tax issues that will have an impact.”
A detailed keynote presentation by Victor Calanog, Ph.D., chief economist and senior vice president at Reis – focusing on key issues in CRE, including risk management and valuation – was an event highlight.
Key points of his presentation include:
- The nation’s long-term growth potential is 1.9 GDP, with the high twos possible for 2018. Much above 1.9 growth may be inflationary; below, it may be recessive.
- Wages may be rising, but people should be wary of the potential for offsetting effects. At some point, higher inflation expectations may pressure real estate cap rates upwards.
- Weekly job rate growth should be between 105,000 and 110,000.
- Once employment turns negative for one month, there is 50 percent chance of recession; at two months, it increases to 80 percent.
- An inverted yield curve has predicted a downturn within one year the last 12 of 13 times. Our yield curve is flattening.
Trigild’s Most Recent Projects
- Health & Safety Receiver for seven multifamily properties and one hotel in Santa Barbara, CA
- Property Manager for an office building in Anniston, AL
- Receiver for two hotels in Casper, WY
- CREFC Annual Conference, June 11-13, 2018 (Judy Hoffman attending)
Are REITs Oversold? – NREI
CMBS Delinquency Rate Measures Diverge Slightly – MBA Newslink
U.S. Hotel Revenues Surpassed $200 Billion In 2017 – Hotel News Resource
Commercial property prices hit new peak – Scotsman Guide
The Retail Sky Is Not Falling – GlobeSt.com